alex Salmond was last night on course for a second term as First Minister as voters across Scotland turned away in large numbers from Labour and the Liberal Democrats.  Former Labour minister andy Kerr became the first major scalp of the Holyrood election, losing to the SNP's Linda Fabiani in the East Kilbride constituency. Mr Kerr, who was Labour's finance spokesman in the last parliament, lost a notional majority, picking up 12,410 votes to Ms Fabiani's 14,359.  Labour's Tom McCabe also lost his Hamilton seat to the SNP's Christina McKelvie.  Elsewhere, there were widespread signs of a collapse in the Lib Dem vote, with Tavish Scott's party losing their deposit in the first seat of the night to be declared in Rutherglen, where the SNP vote surged by 16 per cent.  The broad picture looks set to deliver an SNP victory and a return to Bute House for alex Salmond with an increased mandate.  If his re-election is confirmed today, Mr Salmond is expected to press ahead with his preferred plan to run a second SNP minority government for the next five years.  Early indications last night suggested clearly that he will be in a far stronger position than over the past four years, when he held a one-seat majority over Labour.  Labour sources were last night indicating they expected the SNP to beat them in several previously secure seats, and that their rivals could have a double-digit lead in seats by the time all the results came in.  The last opinion poll of the campaign, published last night, suggested the SNP had double the support of Labour, and was in sight of a majority on its own.  The Progressive Opinion poll gave the SNP 51 per cent on the constituency vote and 53 per cent on the regional list.Labour, meanwhile, would win just 26 per cent in the constituency vote and 21 per cent on the list.  Mr Salmond will, however, have to wait until this afternoon to discover the final result, with some councils not beginning counting until this morning. The full list of 129 seats is therefore not expected until lunchtime.  But within minutes of polls closing, the SNP was confident enough to predict it was heading for a sensational result. Education secretary Mike Russell said: "I think the SNP will have a record night in terms of the percentage of the vote won."  But the Nationalists, along with the other main parties, have been accused of holding a "competition" to match each other's spending commitments, while "avoiding the big issues" of the looming cutbacks.  The incoming Scottish Government is facing an GBP800 million gaping chasm in Scotland's finances, with some of the country's leading experts warning that politicians failed to address the "reality" of public spending cuts in the election campaign.  One expert even warned that they will not be able to afford measures such as the council tax freeze and subsidies to fund the renewable energy revolution - and that the scale of the cuts ahead could be worse than first feared.  The Nationalists insist their key priority will be to gain increased economic powers for Scotland to stimulate growth.  Research by Professor David Bell, of Stirling University, shows the cost of the council tax freeze is set to reach more than GBP535m by the final year of the next parliament.  But the SNP manifesto indicates that a figure closer to GBP280m will be set aside to fund the freeze in council tax in 2015-16, leaving a shortfall of more than GBP250m.  Writing in The Scotsman today, Prof Bell also raises questions over the kind of people at which the measure - backed by all the main parties in the election campaign - is targeted.  "The main beneficiaries from a council tax freeze are middle-income families," he writes. "Poorer families' council tax is paid by the Department for Work and Pensions through council tax benefit."  He adds: "This is GBP535m that will have to be taken from other parts of the Scottish budget, or fudged in a way that will mean even larger cuts to local authority budgets." The SNP is committed to freezing the council tax throughout the five-year period of the new parliament.  The freeze was in place throughout the last parliament. Councils were given GBP70m a year to finance the measure - but faced additional cuts in their cash if they did not agree to it.  Prof Bell also warns that increased student tuition fees in England will see the funding gap between Scottish and English universities reach about GBP300m.  Mr Salmond has pledged to fill any gap from the public purse, but these figures are far higher than originally expected, with initial Scottish Government estimates placing the gap at about GBP100m.  The controversial increase in fees south of the Border will see the average annual tuition fee for students reach a higher-than-expected GBP8,500.  Only the Tories have suggested some form of graduate contribution in Scotland, with Mr Salmond dramatically proclaiming that the "rocks will melt in the sun" before he allows fees to be introduced in Scotland.  However, Prof Bell adds: "Scottish politicians have spent much of this year's election campaign avoiding the big issues.  "In the last two years and over two elections, politicians have failed to allow public services to plan adequately, because of their wish not to commit to making cuts prior to an election.  "This has not served the UK and Scottish public well."  Economic output fell 3.5 per cent over the course of the last parliament, the academic added. "This is hardly a ringing endorsement of the ability of our politicians to produce an economy that is capable of supporting the wide range of public services which the Scottish people seem to want," he writes.  Mr Salmond has pledged to spare public sector workers from compulsory lay-offs, protect NHS funding and continue with universal benefits, such as free prescription charges.  Professor John McLaren, of Glasgow University's Centre for Public Policy for Regions, and a former adviser to ex-first ministers Donald Dewar and Henry McLeish, endorsed Prof Bell's figures. He said the campaign was marked by a lack of discussion about "serious economic policy", as well as facing up to the "difficult" decisions stemming from a diminishing budget.  "Most of the parties have been concentrating on protecting budgets, rather than talking about the budgets that they will have to necessarily cut," Prof McLaren said.  The biggest capital project in Scotland over the next generation is the new Forth road bridge, which will cost GBP1.5 billion, but Prof McLaren warned the money had been allocated from funding sources such as borrowing powers.  "If you borrow, you still have to pay the money back and pay interest, so it eats into what you can buy because you've got to make those increased payments back," he said.  "We've had a spending review, so we did have some figures to discuss in more detail, yet politicians have still delayed it.  "The difficult decisions have now got to be made after the election in private, whereas they haven't been outlined in the manifestos so that voters can have a clear choice on what parties are expecting to do."  Professor Brian ashcroft, of Strathclyde University's Fraser of allander Institute, said the full picture of the options ahead had not been set out for voters.  He said: "I think it's almost certain the parties were not clear about the extent to which it's possible, and even probable, that there will have to be cutbacks in expenditure, but also that jobs would go in the public sector.  "It's largely predicated on efficiency savings, which will be very, very hard to realise, and a wage freeze which will last for two years," said Prof ashcroft.  "It's not clear what will happen afterwards, but it's highly probable, given the commitment to maintain free prescriptions and the size of the funding gap for universities, that there will have to be cuts."  Economic consultant Tony MacKay sai