 1S 1S John Kobal Foundation It has been a long election campaign for Iain Gray. The Labour leader has visited 46 constituencies in the past few weeks - "Quite a few more than once," he says with feeling. His waxy pallor attests to days holed up in dank rooms, so perhaps he can be forgiven for switching to autopilot.  It's a gloriously sunny day in the roof garden atop Labour's Glasgow headquarters, but Gray has some dark truths to face. after a month of hard campaigning - Labour claims its activists will have spoken to 1m voters by May 5 - he has seen his 15-point lead over the SNP collapse. The day after we meet, an Ipsos Mori poll puts alex Salmond's party firmly ahead with 45% on the constituency vote to Labour's 34%. On the crucial list vote, the SNP are 10 points ahead of Labour, on 42%. It translates to 61 seats for the SNP against 45 for Labour. It's not looking good for the quiet man of Scottish politics.  Labour denounces the poll as "rogue" and it may indeed overstate the extent of Salmond's support. However, Gray sought to shrug off the last poll that put the SNP ahead as "a one-off" too. The SNP is steadily garnering support from across the political spectrum. Labour's core vote may indeed be holding up as Gray claims, but every poll since November has shown overall support for the party dropping. There is no denying the trend. Except here is Gray, squinting into the april sunshine, in full-on trend denial.  "The polls that showed us up at 49% I didn't believe," he says. "at the time, I said it was closer than that and the nearer we got to the election the closer it would get. In February, there was a poll that put the SNP ahead and this week there was a poll that put them slightly ahead. I'm not sure there is a trend there. We're in a fight for this election. There's a lot to play for. all the polls show that there are a lot of 'don't knows' and our work on the ground shows that too."  Gray maintains that while Salmond has been waging a high-profile "air battle" - all celebrity endorsements and media launches - Labour has conducted a quiet but successful ground campaign on the doorsteps which will pay off on May 5. It's not how the bloody infantry sees it. There have been mutterings by Labour MSPs and MPs about the haplessness of the campaign.  Gray's approval ratings have put him below the Tory leader, annabel Goldie. Many voters simply do not know who he is and, as his recognition factor increases, Labour's support slips. Only 23% believe he would make the best first minister, with 53% for Salmond. "We started the campaign with alex Salmond being better known," says Gray. "That's not surprising. He's been first minister for four years and he's been in the front line of elected politics for 20 years. But he is a one-man band. If you change the name of your party on the ballot paper to your own name, you can't say you are not a one-man band."  It's not just the fiscal deficit Gray has to grapple with, it's the personality deficit. His approach is laid-back to the point of soporific. Even on a one-to-one basis, he is difficult to engage fully. It seems remarkable that in the three years Gray has been leader of the Labour party, nobody has tackled this obvious problem.  It's not as though he is lacking a hinterland. He spent two years in war-torn Mozambique teaching physics in Portuguese to traumatised african children. as Oxfam's campaigns director in Scotland, he jetted into Rwanda in the aftermath of the genocide, saw the effects of Pol Pot's regime in Cambodia, and turned up in Chile in the week that General Pinochet left office.  There's even a hint of sexual intrigue. In his Oxfam days, Gray was a close friend of Kevin Dunion, who worked for Friends of the Earth and is now the Scottish information commissioner.  Gray's first wife, Linda Malloch, is now married to Dunion. Gray's second wife, Gill, originally worked with his first. Gray has said that there was no impropriety and that both his and Gill's first marriages were over before they teamed up.  YET Gray's spin doctors seem unable to help him release his inner James Bond. The only time recently that he has alluded to his past, it backfired. Sean Clerkin and the anti-cuts protesters caused him to hightail from a walkabout in Glasgow and seek shelter in a sandwich shop. Gray, asked whether he was shaken by the confrontation, remarked to universal derision that he had "walked in the killing fields of Cambodia".  "It doesn't look great on YouTube, I don't deny it," he says of the incident. "I offered to speak to Sean Clerkin. He wasn't interested and he just carried on screaming in my face so I walked away. Stopping on the way for a sandwich probably wasn't the best thing."  The questions over his leadership style don't mask the concerns about substance. Gray went into the campaign with a negative message, warning that now the Tories were back in Westminster, Scots needed to elect Labour as a safeguard. The battle here, however, is not with the Tories but the SNP. Labour is now switching its message to play on voters' fears that a vote for Salmond is a vote for independence by the back door, but it may be too late. The SNP has waged a largely positive campaign. Salmond's attack-dog tendencies have been reined in for fear of offending female voters. He famously said Gray would make a "wonderful" first minister.  It's not a compliment the Labour leader is keen to return.  "The SNP have been trying to turn this into a personality contest for some time because they don't want to be examined on their track record and they have no forward offer," he says. "I don't think alex Salmond has served Scotland well."  But personality counts, particularly when it's hard to get a cigarette paper between the policies of the two main parties. Labour's massive support in Scotland at the general election, which Gray is trying to hold on to, had much to do with Gordon Brown. Brown, who never seemed to have a great deal of time for Labour's Scottish leaders, has kept a low profile in this campaign. He appeared with Gray last week, but has refused to campaign outwith Fife. By contrast, Ed Miliband, who is due back in Scotland next week, does not command the same respect. His latest approval rating here is minus 13. Gray denies the Miliband factor has been a drag on Labour's campaign, saying the national leader has been a great support personally.  Gray insists he will win this election but says he won't resign as leader if he loses, although he may be left with no option. The politician he most resembles is Iain Duncan Smith, a decent, able minister with a social conscience who failed to ignite his party as leader but went on to be well respected for his work on social problems. Poverty and youth unemployment are also Gray's hobby horses.  Holes have appeared in his manifesto largely because of an element of wishful thinking in the funding - something he shares with the SNP - and partly because of sloppy figures and badly designed policies. His reduction of cancer treatment times, however, is the most popular policy of any party, and his flagship policy of "abolishing youth unemployment" and creating 250,000 jobs by giving an apprenticeship to every youth who wants one, is also popular in many quarters.  It's a hugely ambitious, and some would say naive, policy. Gray cites Babcock and BaE Systems as two big companies who have agreed to help but is vague as to the extent of their contribution. Of the new jobs, 60,000 will be "green" positions in the renewables sector but most will come from sole traders, such as plumbers or electricians, being encouraged to take on an apprentice.  In the past, Labour has led in coalition with the Lib Dems, and Gray doesn't rule out doing so again, although he is eyeing Patrick Harvie of the Greens as a political bedfellow, and minority government is also looking attractive now that the SNP has shown it can work.  "The Greens launched their manifesto last night," he says. "Some of the polls show them doing better than the Lib Dems, so the electorate might say that they should be part of those discussions.  Is there any common ground with the Greens? Yes, I think there is."  How the Lib Dems feel about this is anyone's guess. Tavish Scott, the party's leader, is proving elusive. The Sunday Times's promised interview has failed to materialise. His team is notably more chaotic and less experienced than those of the other parties. "Tavish is all interviewed out," says his press officer, halfway through the campaign. It's a remark that inadvertently chimes with Labour concerns that its Lib Dem colleagues in the previous coalition lacked stamina.  Scott has had the most torrid time, with John Farquhar Munro, the senior Lib Dem MSP in the previous parliament, backing Salmond, and voters mistaking the Lib Dem leader for the disgraced RBS boss Fred Goodwin. Early polls put the party fifth behind the Greens, as the Lib Dems seem to be paying the price for broken promises at Westminster over tuition fees and health reforms.  Recently, Scott has recently distanced himself from Nick Clegg and expressed "discomfort" over his party being in coalition with the Tories at Westminster.  It may belatedly be working for him. In the most recent poll, the Lib Dems fare better with nine seats, just behind the Tories and ahead of the Greens but still a far cry from the 16 seats they held in the previous parliament.  There is a chance that Gray and Scott, despite their low approval ratings, may yet form the next government. Labour has been the dominant party in Scotland since the 1960s and the SNP won by the slimmest of margins in 2007. The Lib Dems have been in power in every parliament but the last.  But Scottish Labour politicians, most of whom are uneasy about working again with the Lib Dems, are becoming increasingly pessimistic about their chances. "We're screwed," is how one Labour MP puts it. "Iain isn't exactly a charismatic, dynamic leader with a compelling vision for Scotland."  another said: "We've been outwitted by the nats ... We've failed to get a positive message out there about what Labour intends to do in Scotland.  "It's basically been about being hostile to Salmond, standing up to the Tories and being tough on knife crime - and it's not working. Not only is Iain dull, the team around him isn't setting the heather on fire and it's difficult to see how he can get out of this."  With each passing day, the chances of winning power seem slimmer and the quiet man of Scottish politics may find himself silenced by the electorate.  Party promises: the view of the experts a FEW weeks ago Reform Scotland published a collection of policy ideas designed to help bring about long-term economic growth and effective public services.  Summarising its 17 reports published since 2008, its central theme is the need to devolve responsibility, not just through increased financial powers to the Scottish parliament and local authorities, but to individuals and communities.  Reform Scotland has used this work to grade the main parties' manifesto commitments ahead of the Scottish elections on May 5. Its report card is not an assessment of all the policies of the main parties, but a reflection of how well they meet Reform Scotland's prescription to improve the country's long-term prospects.  This has been a disappointing campaign: it is about who can promise the most, without offering any long-term solutions either to the economic situation or the challenges facing public services.  The current fiscal structure of the Scottish Parliament is partly to blame. Holyrood''s reliance on the block grant limits its accountability. It provides little incentive for politicians to come up with ideas to boost economic growth or improve public services. This is because however poorly the economy performs, the money still rolls in via the block grant. If the economy did grow faster, the benefits would accrue to the chancellor at Westminster and not the Scottish government.  The Liberal Democrats deserve credit for at least identifying in their introduction that centralised control is the root problem, in particular stating "many politicians believe that the best decisions made about public services are those made from behind the ministerial desk. They are wrong. Public services are at their most efficient and effective when they are run by local people, to meet local needs." However, many of their policies fail to live up to this ambitious start.  This aside, there are reasons to be optimistic with a number of policies, from all parties, taking steps in the right direction and echoing recommendations made by Reform Scotland: Labour''s expansion of vocational education; Conservative policies for free schools and tuition fees; the Lib Dem and Green position on localism and the SNP call to strengthen the Scotland Bill. In addition, all parties make encouraging pledges on transport, digital infrastructure and expansion of the third sector.  However, one of the biggest areas of disappointment is local government, where four of the five parties are effectively calling for further centralisation of what little fiscal responsibility our councils have left.  Most Scottish politicians would object if Westminster started dictating how Holyrood used its powers but this is exactly what Scottish politicians are proposing for local government, with the council-tax freeze and other pledges. Effectively removing local authorities' control over council tax will make a bad situation worse. Council-tax freezes may be popular, but council-tax levels have to be a matter for councillors, not MSPs, or why bother having local taxes? If councillors choose to put up tax to meet spending commitments, local voters will be able to vote them out of office. Equally, if councillors keep bills low, that should be to their credit. Blurring these lines of responsibility blurs accountability.  In contrast, Reform Scotland has argued that local authorities should, over time, raise at least half of their own revenue. This would enhance their autonomy and accountability, which would also help councils become more responsive to their communities. Giving councils full responsibility for council tax and business rates would be a good first step.  These are not new arguments. They are the same ones made by Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives and the SNP in their calls for more fiscal powers for the Scottish Parliament. If it is right for parliament, then surely it is right for local government. In this regard, credit must be given to the Scottish Greens for arguing that "local community empowerment is an agenda Holyrood must embrace instead of seeing it as a threat".  Reform Scotland believes that we need to find new ways to provide our public services and to allow people choice, so that they can decide how they want the service delivered. This is in contrast to the manifestos of the main political parties. Government needs to facilitate the infrastructure that will help build a strong economy, it needs to protect its citizens and ensure proper competition. It does not, however, need to run all the services it currently provides - and in many cases provides inefficiently.  The financial and public-sector crisis is not a short-term problem and will not be solved by tinkering. It has highlighted that there are long-term structural problems that need to be addressed.  We need to have a plan for Scotland for the next 20 years that enables the next generation to compete without the benefits of our oil resources, which will diminish over time.  Reform Scotland hopes that whichever party or parties form the next Scottish government they heed our long-term vision that seeks structural reform across all areas of the public sector. They must be a lot bolder and more far-sighted today to create a stronger Scotland for tomorrow.  alison Payne is research director of Reform Scotland Party Grades Fiscal Framework Sentencing / Prisons NHS Schools Tuition Fees Code: a: full marks - F: wrong direction Source: Reform Scotland SNP Wants more tax and borrowing powers to be added to the Scotland Bill also backs independence a: additional fiscal powers are greatly needed Establish sentencing council to address unconditional early automatic release C: It is judge's role to pass sentence and government's role to enforce that sentence Protect spending; single integrated system; committed to publicly-funded and publicly-delivered NHS D: Fundamental reform of the system needed Create conditions for every child to learn two languages; develop Scottish studies strands for schools D: Good ideas but should be developed by schools No tuition fees or graduate contribution F: Higher education is paid for by taxpayers; unfair given funding gap between England and Scotland Labour Supports Scotland Bill plan for more financial powers C: Credit for recognising need for greater responsibility for spending but no detail of how new powers to be used Mandatory jail for anyone caught carrying a knife; bring in alcohol-treatment orders D: Mandatory terms take away judges' ability to take all circumstances into account Protect spending; introduce national care service; cancer waiting times targets; cut special health board numbers D: Central control through targets limits scope Give head teachers more responsibility on curriculum and deployment of resources D: Greater responsibilities for head teachers welcomed, but strategy too centralising No up-front or back-end tuition fees F: Education is not free but paid for by taxpayers; unfair given funding gap between England and Scotland Tories Supports Scotland Bill but won't use existing or new taxvarying powers C: Responsibility for raising money it spends would give incentive to improve efficiency Re-introduce sentences of less than 3 months; end automatic early release C: Credit for wanting to end automatic release and harder community sentences Protect spending;  