Progress in the bombing campaign against Islamic State has heightened the risk of a retaliatory strike on Australian soil, one of the world experts on suicide terrorism has warned.
Professor Robert Pape, the director of the Chicago Project on Security and Terrorism, has told a series of top-level meetings with Australian government officials and researchers that IS is lashing out at members of the coalition involved in the air strikes.
In an interview with Fairfax Media, Professor Pape said Australia must not be complacent and think it was too far away or out of reach. He said Australia was very much on the radar of IS. 
"We have to take seriously over the next four to six months that IS is going to be interested in a serious way in carrying out co-ordinated complex attacks against members of the military action against them," Professor Pape said.
The fact that Australia was a minor player was not a mitigating factor.
"It doesn't matter how much you are in for, whether it is in for a penny or in for a pound. Unfortunately, IS has some reason for its strategic logic."
Professor Pape is a political scientist at the University of Chicago and specialises in international security affairs. He and his team have studied every suicide attack since the 1980s and he has explored the terrorism of IS in his latest book Cutting the Fuse: The Explosion of Global Suicide Terrorism and How to Stop It.
Professor Pape told government officials and think tanks that his research showed that since the start of the bombing campaign, IS had been losing territory and it was lashing out as it was shrinking.
Professor Pape said he and his team had calculated the number of suicide terror attacks linked to IS during the past year and discovered they were dropping in Syria and Iraq for the first time, but rising in other countries such as France, Egypt, Turkey and others.
"It is a shift of location to outside of the region to attack Western targets - specifically targets that were involved in a campaign against IS," he said.
He sees it as an attempt to make those countries either back out of air strikes or to goad them into putting troops on the ground, giving IS further fuel for its recruiting drive.
Jacinta Carroll, the head of the Counter Terrorism Policy Centre at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said Professor Pape's warning means that "as IS [and Jabhat al-Nusra and others] come under greater pressure in the Middle East, they may continue to focus on striking where they can, outside the Middle East, and particularly in those countries it seeks to undermine. These attacks serve a further purpose in demonstrating capability to attract potential recruits and funders," she said.
"In terms of coalition commitments to operations in the Middle East, this means governments including Australia need to focus on a long-term strategy, understanding nuance including the perception of roles.
"The contribution of air power, training support, ISR [intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance] support such as Australia is currently providing is essential and valuable, while not providing the potential for IS to use ground elements as part of a negative narrative."
Islamic State terrorist attacks in the Middle East and Europe
FRANCE
  November 13, 2015
Gunmen and suicide bombers simultaneously attack seven locations throughout Paris, killing 129 people and injuring more than 350. IS claim responsibility
LEBANON
  November 12, 2015
Suicide bombing in a busy Beirut shopping district kills 44 people, injures 239. IS claims responsibility.
EGYPT
  August 12, 2015
An IS affiliate beheads a Croatian expatriate worker because of Croatia's "participation in the war against the Islamic State".
  August 26, 2015
Three gunmen kill two police officers. Sinai Province of Islamic State claims responsibility.
  October 31, 2015
Russian passenger jet blows up over Egypt, killing all 224 people on board. IS affiliate claims responsibility.
  November 4, 2015
Suicide bombing kills at least 4 police officers. IS Sinai affiliate claims responsibility
TURKEY
  October 11, 2015
Two suicide bombers kill 100 people and injure over 250 at a peace rally in Ankara. IS claims responsibility.
  February 19, 2016
Car bomb detonates outside parliament in Ankara, killing at least 28 and injuring dozens. IS originally suspected, but Kurdistan Freedom Hawks (TAK) claim responsibility.
SAUDI ARABIA
  August 7, 2015
Suicide bombing at a mosque kills at least 15 people, including 12 members of the Saudi police force. IS claims responsibility
YEMEN
  September 2, 2015
Two bombings at a mosque, 20 people killed. Yemen's IS affiliate claims responsibility.
  September 24, 2015
Two bombs go off outside mosque during Eid al-Adha prayers, killing 25.
  October 6, 2015
Series of bombings in Yemen's two largest cities kills 25