Using conventional criteria the set of economic numbers that were released on Wednesday should have produced an Australian recession.
But we have not gone into recession and indeed the sharemarket is trading at around year-high levels and dwelling prices, at least in Sydney and Melbourne, have risen.
Most economists concentrate on whether there is going to be a rate reduction next week. I am not going to get into that game because I want to look at the deeper forces - why there should have been a recession; why it didn't happen and whether we can keep avoiding such dangers. 
Leading economist Callam Pickering sets out three graphs that reveal why there should have been a recession.
The first is real gross domestic product which measures domestic production or expenditure and is doing well at around 3 per cent helped by the volume of iron ore and coal exports (not the prices).
The second is domestic final demand, which basically measures domestic demand for goods and services. We have not seen this graph fall to these levels since the recession of the 1990s.
The third measure is real gross domestic income, which adjusts traditional measures of real GDP for changes in the terms of trade including lower prices. Once again, we are at very low levels.
Had I been told two years ago that the economy of 2015-16 was going to look like this I would have made a "recession" forecast and been wrong.
Why? First, what the graphs don't show is that we have had an incredible investment in domestic property fuelled by lower interest rates, generous bank credit and, importantly, Asian demand, including a rash of 10 per cent deposit apartment buying "off the plan" which boosted construction.
At the same time, there has been strong migration and state government and local planners have boosted prices by restricting supply. The Australian dollar also fell, which helped many companies.
Government deficits also pumped cash into the system.
Companies overcame the lower consumer demand by greater efficiencies and by curbing wage growth. Mass retrenchments were not widespread. The health, tourist and educational markets remained strong.
Consumers with houses offset the lack of wage growth with lower mortgage payments, while those without houses have started to push down rent levels.
Retirees with cash in the bank were hit by lower interest rates and the fact that medical and government charges kept rising.
But one of our great strengths is that about a third of retirees have self-managed funds.
A survey released yesterday by the Self Managed Super Fund Association shows that people with self-managed super funds who are in retirement (that is, pulling down a pension from their fund) or in transition to retirement, achieved an average return of 4.2 per cent in 2015-16. That's an excellent result because with underlying inflation at 1.5 per cent, it's a real return of 2.7 per cent.
Depending on how much money they have in their funds, the SMSF movement is still looking to cover most of its retirement costs.
So what has changed that still leaves Australia exposed to the danger of falling into recession?
First, Chinese buying of apartments has fallen sharply and the banks have tightened lending to Asian investors so there are fears that many of the contracts will not be honoured, sending builders to the wall, particularly in Melbourne.
Second, overall there has been a tightening of bank credit for housing, so, while there has been no collapse, the market is not as buoyant. This is a clear danger for Australia because almost all recessions have at their core a bank credit squeeze.
In particular, if there is a crack in the overseas sources of money for our banks (either through bank failures overseas or because spending by our politicians lowers our credit rating), then there is grave danger of a credit squeeze occurring.
Nevertheless, if migration remains strong, prices should hold and the Airbnb systems can enable tourists to make use of the apartment oversupply.
Meanwhile, shares are rising on the back of an expected lower interest-rate environment. The coming profit season will not be great but should enable most dividends to be held.
Longer term, companies are holding up share prices via dividends but they aren't investing sufficient sums in their business.
If Hong Kong people get scared of the power of China and decide to invest in Australian real estate, prices will firm. In Vancouver, Hong Kong buying has pushed residential prices even higher than in Australia.I think, one way or another, we will muddle through with the greatest risks remaining either an overseas-driven bank credit squeeze or that the returns to individuals via salaries and to businesses via profits may not be sufficient to maintain current real estate values.