Following a period of relative stability for the Australian dollar, the currency is at a crossroads and may begin to edge lower due the prospect of an interest rate cut next week and a resurgent US dollar, analysts say.
Quiet trading is expected in the lead-up to Wednesday's second-quarter consumer price index data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which economists expect will be the deciding factor in whether or not the Reserve Bank of Australia cuts interest rates at its meeting next week.
National Australia Bank's   September target of US72Â¢ is at an "important crossroads" as a raft of data and central bank meetings are due this week, the bank's currency strategist Rodrigo Catril says. In late trade on Monday, the currency was buying US74.78Â¢. 
"A soft [inflation] print will probably seal the deal for a rate cut in   August and help our forecast be met," he said.
However, NAB economists are among the few who are predicting inflation to come in higher than expected, at 0.5 per cent versus the consensus of 0.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter. A stronger figure would validate its view that rates would remain on hold in   August, and for the rest of the year.
"That in itself will give an uplift in the Australian currency," Mr Catril said.
However, external factors are likely to have a more lasting influence on the currency. The US dollar, which has strengthened in recent weeks due to positive economic data, hit a four-month high of 97.5 on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index on Monday, a measure of the currency against 10 major peers.
The US Federal Reserve will release its statement on Wednesday and, while no interest rate rises are expected, investors are expecting a change in language from the Fed that will pave the way for a hike.
  September is the next likely live meeting for the Fed, Westpac senior currency strategist Sean Callow says. "The pricing for a rate hike in   September was about zero earlier this month, and now it's about a 25 per cent chance," he said. "The market is taking the prosect of the US rate hike seriously."
That strength has "chipped away" at the Aussie, reinforced by the growing expectation of a rate cut at home and the changing rate differential between the two nations. But the US dollar is likely to strengthen gradually, with some bumps along the way. Westpac has a   September target of US73Â¢ and a year-end target of US71Â¢.
Mr Callow said US dollar bulls needed to prepare for the Bank of Japan meeting on Friday.
"If they disappoint, it can lead to a nasty pull-back in the dollar-yen, which will obviously be tough for the dollar index," he said.
Also conspiring against a stronger Aussie are commodity prices because demand for US dollar-denominated commodities, including iron ore, usually fall in response to a stronger greenback.
"Commodity prices should chip away at the Aussie as supply remains ample in the months ahead," Mr Callow said. "Right now [however] it's not giving you a pressing reason to sell."
Mr Catril said commodities would also likely come under pressure from a wind-down in stimulus from China, which has been propping up demand in the first half.
Clime Asset Management analyst Paul Zwi forecast the currency moving as low as US70Â¢ in the months ahead.
"While it is true that commodity prices appear to be stabilising and our interest rates remain relatively high, the Australian dollar is still higher than it should be, and it should weaken over the next year," he said.