Labor is in danger of losing two of its traditional strongholds in Bill Shorten's home state, where the rise of the Greens and a bitter stoush over the CFA could help Malcolm Turnbull return to government.
By 10pm on Saturday night, Labor had a swing of 3.25 per cent nationally, but in Victoria - where Labor hardheads were hopeful of some gains - the swing towards the party was only 1.8 per cent.
With the election likely to fall in the Coalition's favour, the ALP was at risk of losing the suburban seat of Chisholm vacated by former speaker Anna Burke, with Liberal candidate Julia Banks slightly ahead with almost half the vote counted. 
In the inner city, embattled MP David Feeney was also under serious threat from Greens candidate Alex Bhathal, with both sides declaring the contest too close to call.
Labor's chances of winning back the marginal Coalition seat of Corangamite had been dented early in the count - with incumbent Sarah Henderson consolidating her position since the last federal election - but the party had more luck in the regional seat of McEwan, where incumbent MP Rob Mitchell retained his seat against controversial Liberal opponent Chris Jermyn.
The results suggest the CFA stoush - which exploded mid-campaign when Premier Daniel Andrews tried to push through a controversial union deal - caused some angst throughout the state, but the damage was not as severe as initially feared. Nonetheless, Mr Andrews already faces angst within federal Labor ranks, with some colleagues privately furious that the firefighters' dispute proved to be such a distraction in Victoria, making it harder for Mr Shorten to campaign on his own turf and giving Mr Turnbull ammunition to claim that Labor is beholden to the unions.
In other results:
" The seat of Murray vacated by Liberal MP Sharman Stone was likely to fall to the Nationals for the first time in years, with Damien Drum holding 59 per cent per cent of the two-party vote by late Saturday night.
" The Liberals appeared set to narrowly hold on in the marginal seats of Deakin and Latrobe Dunkley.
" Assistant Treasurer Kelly O'Dwyer was likely to retain the seat of Higgins despite a double-digit swing to the Greens.
" Labor hardheads were sweating on the outcome of Melbourne Ports, where sitting MP Michael Danby's decision to preference the Liberals ahead of the Greens could bolster the government's chances there.
" The ALP fended off another fierce inner city battle with the Greens in Wills by late Saturday night
" Independent MP Cathy McGowan held on in the seat of Indi against former Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella.
After a marathon eight-week campaign, it was widely expected that the election would be won or lost in key battlegrounds across western Sydney and Queensland, with Victoria widely seen as fairly safe territory for Labor, which held 19 out of 37 seats across the state.
However, the fact Mr Shorten could not make any strong gains in his own state is likely to spark some soul-searching within Labor ranks, with some federal sources already turning on Mr Andrews for escalating the CFA dispute.
"It was a frustration because it stopped us from getting our message across and set our own agenda in Victoria," a campaign hardhead told Fairfax Media on Saturday night.
Others have already sought to blame Mr Shorten, claiming the federal leader demanded that the state government resolve the issue after the UFU threatened to doorknock the inner city seat of Wills.