Tasmanian election analyst Kevin Bonham says Independent Andrew Wilkie was looking likely to retain his seat of Denison, Labor's Julie Collins will retain Franklin and Labor's Ross Hart will take the seat of Bass from Liberal incumbent Andrew Nikolic.
The seats in the north and northwest of the state are living up to their reputations as difficult for incumbents to defend.On current trends, Lyons and Braddon are also on track to change hands.