Whether any of the impressive array of naval platforms provided for in the 2016 Defence White Paper ever fires a shot in anger, the opening salvo in the debate about Australia's future defence posture was fired by former prime minister Tony Abbott this week. Abbott warned his successor against any erosion of the potent global military force to which he had aspired in the White Paper begun under his government.
Abbott is a pessimist about the state of the world and believes a lack of resolve on the part of US President Barack Obama has undermined the security of Australia and the broader Western alliance. He had become impatient at the delay in the release of the White Paper, which he considered complete at the time he left office. He suspected Malcolm Turnbull was surreptitiously planning to dilute his ambitious vision of a potent, joint military force with global reach, and achieve savings through cuts to major defence procurements, especially in the naval ship building program. He need not have been concerned. Turnbull and minister Marise Payne have committed Australia to the development of the most cohesive integrated and powerful joint force this nation has ever fielded. 
At the heart of the Defence White Paper released yesterday is an ambitious expansion of Australia's naval power built around a fleet of 12 "regionally superior" submarines. That term reflects the fact there is already a regional arms race underway and a number of regional nations including Indonesia and Vietnam are investing heavily in undersea warfare. It also recognises China's adoption of a strategy of anti-access and area denial, through the deployment of relatively cheap medium and long- range ballistic missiles capable of destroying American aircraft carriers.
This severely constrains the ability of the US to coerce China or impede its steady militarisation of artificial islands in the South China Sea. Rising tensions between China, the US and other regional nations make this a potential flashpoint for conflict. While the White Paper considers the risk of a direct conventional attack upon the Australian mainland before 2035 as remote, the forces being developed over the next two decades constitute a hedging strategy against serious state-on-state war in the Indo-Pacific region.
The major investments contained in this White Paper are based on two key strategic assumptions. Firstly, that the US remains our most important ally and the ultimate guarantor of the liberal order upon which the security of our sea lines of communication depend. Secondly, that while the rise of China continues to be a source of economic prosperity it is unmistakably a revisionist power, which does not accept the permanence of that rules-based global order, which it deems an essentially American creation. The pragmatic view of the Turnbull government is that increasing strategic competition between China and the US is now inevitable and we need to hedge against worst-case scenarios.
The maritime forces envisaged in this White Paper are designed to operate seamlessly with our US allies in maintaining Australia's access to the global commons - whether sea-lanes, cyberspace or outer space. For good reasons, the White Paper does not specify the details of the substantial expansion of Australia's ability to engage in offensive and -defensive cyber-operations. Our information technology infrastructure is already attacked and probed by both state and non-state actors. The investment in greater resilience in this domain is welcome, as is the expansion of our ability to use space-based assets to link air, land and sea elements of our force, and to interfere with the operations of any adversary.
Do not let the anodyne language of the sections on cyber and space fool you. This is a quantum leap into the future for the ADF. Turnbull understands these areas as well as anyone in public life and the potential to harness academia, the defence industry and our military forces in a joint effort to exploit the synergies of cyber and space warfare will have profound effects on other areas of Australian business and employment.
The design of the force, with its submarine fleet supported by one of the most agile and potent air forces in the world, is commendable.
The reservations I have are the perennial doubts about the resolve of any government to fund guns when people want butter. By committing to spend 2 per cent of GDP on Defence, Turnbull is pledging to invest $195 billion on new and enhanced capabilities over the next decade. It will take real political will to sustain that commitment. Likewise, recruiting the expanded numbers of service personnel will present a real challenge.
This is a sound White Paper. It will hopefully deter China. It will certainly deter Tony Abbott for the time being.
Catherine McGregor is a former senior military adviser.