Australians now own more guns than before the 1996 Port Arthur massacre, according to new research that shows firearm imports hit a record high in 2014-15.
The surge in gun-buying over the past 16 years, which has seen 1.02 million guns brought into the country, has been largely a "gun swap", according to Philip Alpers, a University of Sydney public health researcher, gun control expert and director of gunpolicy.org.
"The proud claim of some Australians that their country has 'solved the gun problem' might only be a temporary illusion," Associate Professor Alpers will write in The Conversation on Thursday. "The million guns destroyed after Port Arthur have been replaced with 1,026,000 new ones. And the surge only shows upward momentum." 
Gun sales in 2014-15 were the highest on record, swelling six-fold compared with 1999, gunpolicy.org research shows. With 104,000 guns added last year, the national arsenal is, for the first time in 20 years, bigger than before the 1996 national buyback.
Population growth over the past 20 years means the rate of private gun ownership remains about 23 per cent lower than before the massacre.
Why are Australians buying more guns?
Researchers struggle to explain who is buying the guns and why.
Associate Professor Alpers believes the surge is most likely driven by gun owners increasing their collections, rather than more Australians buying guns.
He points to figures that show the proportion of Australian households with a gun fell 75 per cent between 1988 and 2005.
"That suggests the people who are buying the guns are people who already have guns. And that fits into the global pattern [of] a steady and substantial downward trend over the past 30-40 years," he said.
Psychologist and self-described gun control critic Samara McPhedran, from Griffith University's Violence Research and Prevention Program, attributes the boom in firearm sales to the rising popularity of shooting sports among a younger demographic.
1996 gun laws may have strengthened the gun lobby
One unintended consequence of the post-Port Arthur gun laws was to boost the wealth and widen the influence of shooting clubs, according to Mr Alpers.
The 1996 laws require gun owners to show they have a genuine reason to own a firearm. The easiest way for people in urban areas to do this is through membership in a gun club, Mr Alpers said.
In NSW, for example, the firearm licensing regulations require members of target shooting clubs to participate at least four times a year.
"People who never normally went to gun clubs were now going to gun clubs and shooting ranges because the law obliged them to," he said.
"So the gun lobby has grown in size, political clout and, certainly, in money ... as a side-effect of the post-Port Arthur gun laws."
Such clubs also play a vital role in politicising gun owners and nurturing future ones, Mr Alpers said.
For example, shooters' clubs have called for age restrictions on minors firearm licences to be lifted, so children of all ages will be allowed to use weapons while supervised.
Gun sales are up but gun violence is declining
On the other hand, the link between Australia's gun-buying surge and gun violence isn't clear.
"This isn't a sudden increase. It's a consistent pattern that we've seen over a number of years," Dr McPhedran said. "And despite those increases we've seen steady declines in firearm misuse."
Homicide and suicide by firearm have been falling since the 1980s. Armed robbery with a firearm, drive-by shootings and shoot with intent have also continued to fall, she said.
However, psychiatrist Michael Dudley, a senior staff specialist at the Child and Adolescent Mental Health Service at the Prince of Wales and Sydney Children's Hospitals, warned against taking these achievements for granted.
Complacency, he believes, is at least one part of the explanation for increased gun sales.
"People think we've solved the problem," he said.
He warned against attempts to wind back the laws.
"The evidence is all in favour of gun availability and gun ownership being the critical factor" in gun violence, he said.
"The main game is around ensuring that the guns aren't available."