Former Australian cricket captain Steve Waugh believes Steve Smith's side is no better than an even money chance to knock off New Zealand this summer, a team Waugh says will be quietly confident of beating the hosts. 
With Australia's top order far from locked down nine days before the first ball is bowled at the Gabba, Waugh dismissed the suggestion Australia were series favourites against a side ranked sixth on the ICC Test rankings.
Asked whether Australia's inexperienced top order would have any better opportunity to make runs and cement their spots, Waugh said New Zealand, who have not lost a Test series since   May 2013, would be a more difficult assignment than Smith's men might think.
"New Zealand are way better than sixth, it's not six versus two," Waugh said. "They'd be quietly confident of winning this series. There will be two evenly-matched sides in this first Test. It could go either way. If we beat them, that's a good series win. They would see this as the best chance since 1985 when [Richard] Hadlee and the great New Zealand team beat Australia. They're an all-round quality team."
As for selections - which will be finalised after a round of Sheffield Shield matches beginning on Wednesday - Waugh said the Josh Hazlewood-Peter Siddle "quandary" for the third fast-bowling spot could go either way and if he was captain, he would not be concerned by Siddle's limited game time.
Asked what he thought about reports suggesting selectors were hesitant to play Mitchell Starc and Mitchell Johnson in the same side, Waugh said such an idea was "gibber". "I don't care if you've got four left-arm quicks, you put them all in," Waugh said. "I just don't believe in that old wives tale."
In the batting stakes, Waugh is trusting mail from Western Australia coach Justin Langer that Cameron Bancroft can be productive as an opener while the 168-Test veteran would prefer Shaun Marsh to bat higher because he is not a good "watcher and waiter" before going out to the middle.
While Smith starts life as the Australian captain, Waugh, 50, is embarking on a new challenge of his own - riding 920 kilometres from Sydney to Byron Bay in six days in an inaugural Captain's Ride to raise awareness and money for young adults with rare diseases. "I wanted to do something that's difficult and tough and in some small way is like what these [sick] kids go through every day," he said.
"I'm hoping I'm going to make it, but I'm not 100 per cent sure I'm going to do so," Waugh added.
The ride can be followed at www.stevewaughfoundation.com.au.