Low wages and a cooling housing market will curb consumer enthusiasm next year, while business spending will remain weak as resource-related investment continues to wind down, global bond fund manager PIMCO says. 
The executive vice-president and fixed income portfolio manager in Australia, Adam Bowe, says all this adds up to another year of sluggish growth and warns against complacency as the country notches up "100 quarters without a recession".
"With the extent of the macro headwinds Australia faces and the scope of the structural change in the economy as a consequence, we should be alert to the risk of a recession," he said. "When you are riding a bike very slowly, it is much easier to topple off."
His comments added to a chorus of warnings about the fragile state of the Australian economy, after almost 25 years without recession.
Mr Bowe said recent jobs growth, which had driven the official unemployment rate down from 6 per cent to 5.8 per cent, "clearly isn't suggestive of a recession".
But improvements in the labour market would not translate into more robust consumer spending.
"In the two years through to the third quarter of 2015, healthcare and education were the industries experiencing the fastest employment growth, and workers in those sectors were earning average weekly wages of $1051," he said.
"The mining and wholesale trade sectors have been suffering the worst contraction in employment over the same period, and those industries have been paying an average weekly wage of $1750.
"So, clearly, the labour market is rebalancing, which is a good thing. Aggregate employment is growing.
"However, the structural shift into lower paid jobs will continue to weigh on wages and, through that, on household consumption, which remains the largest component of gross domestic product."
Similarly, resource-related investment, which, at its peak in 2012, accounted for 7 per cent of GDP, would continue to shrink next year, after having fallen back to 5 per cent by the end of the third quarter this year.
"Its long-run average prior to the boom was a bit above 1 per cent," Mr Bowe said.
"So the headwinds from lower mining investment, slower growth in China and lower commodity prices will continue to blow in 2016 and likely beyond," he said.