Australia 'sleepwalking' into economic mess Martin Parkinson.
By Mark Kenny and Peter Martin A former head of the Treasury has told a historic coalition of business, unions and welfare lobbyists that the equivalent of a recession is looming in the next decade unless Australia boosts productivity.
Amid calls for warring politicians to get on with vital reform, Martin Parkinson told the National Reform Summit that unless Australia acted quickly, it would sacrifice as much as 5 per cent of the economy in missed economic growth. 
Reprising the famous economic summit of 1983 in which Bob Hawke brought the nation together to embrace structural reform, the National Reform Summit was sponsored by the fierce competitors Fairfax Media and News Corporation.
It comprised peak business bodies such as the Business Council, the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Australian Industry Group, as well as the ACTU, the Australian Council of Social Service and scores of policy think tanks, academics and commentators.
Dr Parkinson said that if growth remained nearer to 2.5per cent than 3per cent, as much as 5 percentage points of gross domestic product would be lost over the next decade and might mean "willingly accepting the impact of a recession".
"We are actually going to find ourselves sleepwalking into a real mess," he said.
Victoria University economic modeller Janine Dixon told the summit that the Treasury's Intergenerational Report painted a "rosy" picture of the future, projecting average growth in real income per person of 1.4per cent, meaning that by 2055 Australians would enjoy real incomes 75per cent higher.
Her own modelling had real incomes growing by less than 1per cent per year, meaning that by 2055 incomes would be only 44per cent higher.
"Put another way, it would take an extra 20 years to reach the income forecast in the Intergenerational Report for 2055," she said.
Professor Ross Garnaut said the official figures on productivity were misleading, boosted by hundreds of billions in capital investments.
"The problem is more urgent and more severe, and all of the solutions are long-term," he said.
If Victoria University's projections were correct, Australia wouldn't achieve the 2020 surplus promised and would instead face "ever increasing budget deficits".
Opposition Leader Bill Shorten used the summit to soften his line on workplace relations, promising to work "collaboratively in reforming industrial relations in construction and major projects".
Industrial Relations Minister Eric Abetz said if Mr Shorten was serious he would start by agreeing to re- establish the Australian Building and Construction Commission.
Treasurer Joe Hockey appealed to the delegates to make bold suggestions for reform, but said it had to be reform that the public could understand and embrace. "The community is not against change. It just wants to make sure that reform has a purpose," he said.
There was near-unanimous agreement among the 90-odd delegates that Australia's system of superannuation tax breaks was skewed to high earners at the expense of productivity.
Mr Hockey rejected changes to the tax on super almost immediately, saying that volatile sharemarkets meant now was "not the time" to hit retirees with a new tax.
Noting the increasingly disruptive role of technology in markets, the parties agreed that key factors required immediate attention. These include: ¦ A radical re-investment in vocational training, where the drop-off in apprenticeships will lead to shortages of skilled labour; ¦ A priority list of shovel-ready infrastructure projects with the capacity to fast-track approvals while protecting the environment and ensuring value for money and; ¦ Special assistance for the long- term unemployed including new upgraded training and job placement.The summit lambasted politicians on both sides for taking ideas off the table, while agreeing on a raft of principles which included a recognition that the reform task is now urgent, that economic growth is too low, and that poverty is too high in pockets of Australia.