Federal Environment Minister Greg Hunt said new low-emissions coal power plants were unlikely to be built in Australia, despite the International Energy Agency saying the more efficient, super-critical plants would help ensure coal remained the dominant global fuel source for decades to come.
Mr Hunt, who is in Paris for the global climate talks, said he expected renewable energy, such as wind and solar, would take up the slack when older coal-fired generators were phased out in Australia. 
He said the latest estimates from the Department of Environment predicted almost 20 per cent of coal-fired power stations will be shut down been 2010 and 2022. If you include high-intensity gas-fired power stations the figure is closer to 30 per cent.
"In Australia, it's more likely to be substituted by renewables," Mr Hunt said in an interview with The Australian Financial Review ahead of the COP21 meeting in Paris.
"The reason being, as the Renewable Energy Target grows and the electricity market has declined in real terms - even if its stabilises now with Queensland LNG [liquefied natural gas] projects - and with renewable energy growth, I don't think there will be much, if any new coal-fired power built."
While anti-fossil fuel activists and environmentalists claim the current drop in international coal prices means the end of coal is nigh, lEA general manager Andrew Minchener??? said the cheap energy source will be around for a while yet.
He said more than 200 gigawatts of new super-critical and ultra super-critical coal-fired power stations - or about 500 power plants - have been rolled out around the world which will ensure coal can still be used, while lowering carbon emissions by between 28 per cent to 40 per cent.
The super critical technology, which involves burning coal at a higher temperature which results in reduced carbon emissions, was developed in Japan in the late 1990s, but really took off when China embraced the new technology in 2006 and 2007.
Dr Minchener, who runs the IEA's Clean Coal Centre and was in Australia last week for meetings with investors as well as the federal government in Canberra, said he was confident that both critical and ultra-critical power stations would replaced older, more efficient ones in Australia.
"This provides a very important step forward because these plants work very well, you can get them on the grid and start bringing down your CO??? emissions, not to zero, but by about 30 per cent," he told the Financial Review.
"The next band of this technology - which won't be ready for 10 or 15 years - will take it further still."
The super-critical technology can be retrofitted on existing power stations but it is more expensive than building a new plant. At the moment there are four super-critical power stations in Australia, including at CS Energy's Callide facility in Queensland.
The IEA has forecast coal will remain a dominant energy source up to the 2040s, despite renewable energy growing quickly off a low base.

Compensation ruled out
But energy demand in Australia is falling with a surplus of generation capacity, meaning investors are unlikely to bankroll any new coal or gas-fired power stations in the next decade.
Mr Hunt would not speculate if government compensation would be the only way to close down dirty, older brown coal power stations such as AGL Energy's Loy Yang facility in Victoria's Latrobe Valley.
The former Rudd government looked at compensation to force the closure of the big polluting power stations, but baulked at the multibillion-dollar price tag. Former energy minister Ian Macfarlane earlier this year ruled out compensation saying it would cost $3 billion to close one power station alone.
Mr Hunt said it was unlikely the big polluting power stations would continue to the end of the natural life into the 2040s.
"I think industry expects movement earlier and is expecting to consolidate," he said.
Dr Minchener it was a real challenge for countries to come to terms with the rise of renewables coming onto the grid, especially as base-load coal-fired power stations have had to be maintained as a back-up for intermittent wind and solar.
"These power stations which were originally designed for base-load operation have had to learn some new tricks," he said.
The IEA executive said carbon capture and storage technology was still an option, despite the UK government last week it had axed a $2 billion grant for CCS projects, although he conceded it was still a way off being commercially viable.
Mr Hunt said he was confident ahead of the COP21 meeting in Paris, saying the 26 to 28 per cent reduction target by 2030 stood up well against other country's efforts.
"It's a highly credible target, but it will still be very difficult and challenging to meet," he said. "But a year ago no one said we would have a snowball's chance in hell of meeting the 2020 target."
Mr Hunt announced last week Australia had met the 2020 target of 5 per cent reduction on 2005 levels five years early.