One of the leading thinkers on markets John Bollinger thinks the doom and gloom about Australia may be overdone.
The creator of the much-used Bollinger Bands is coming to present a series of master classes for CMC Markets in Sydney   November 25, Melbourne   November 26 and Auckland   November 28 and says the fall in commodity prices which has punished many resources companies may be nearing the end. 
"I'm not saying it is at the bottom yet, but I do think there will be some momentum for commodities at some point in the future," he says.
Bollinger expects the US to be one of the stronger markets next year but says Australia may perform better than some expect.
While he has always had an interest in the markets, trading was not his first profession. Bollinger spent 10 years in the film industry as a cameraman before starting to work at one of the earliest media organisations interested in markets, the economy and business, the Financial News Network based in California.
Bollinger was immediately drawn to technical analysis. But while he found the deep study of markets fascinating, it was not easy to acquire knowledge on the topic.
"There were few textbooks on the subject. Also, many of the people involved in that field were in New York, so it was hard being in California."
However, he did receive some helpful advice on the way, even from other senior traders.
So Bollinger persevered and in the 1970s devised his bands theory. In one of his books, he defines the theory as: "Bollinger Bands are bands drawn in and around the price structure [of a stock] on a chart. Their purpose is to provide relative definitions of high and low; prices near the upper band are high, prices near the lower band are low."
There had been other methodologies when Bollinger entered the industry. But they were much more a fixed process, rather than taking into account volatility.
"There would be a fixed number, perhaps set at 5 per cent or 7 per cent around the price. But a weakness with that approach was that it reflected the view of the analyst, depending if they were bearish or bullish on that stock.
"Bollinger bands have proven to be a very robust tool over the past 35 years."
Some aspects of trading have stayed the same over the years, he says, particularly in terms of the emotions at play in markets. But there have been significant changes too, such as the speed with which trades are carried out now such as micro-second trading.
But perhaps the biggest change has been the advent of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Their growth continues with research firm ETFGI reporting that the US and Japan had record inflows for ETFs and exchange-traded products in recent months.
In the US alone there was $US145 billion ($221 billion) in the   September quarter in net new assets. There have been eight successive months of positive net inflows.
As the bulk of ETFs are based on indices, Bollinger says there is increasing concentration in markets.
"Portfolio diversity is not the same as it used to be. Portfolio managers need different tools now."