Australian dollar could fall below US60¢, ANZ Research says Currency Jens Meyer Skittish investors have driven the Australian dollar lower but it could still fall further if a history of traders overshooting the mark is any guide. 
That is the finding of a new analysis from ANZ Research in which strategist Daniel Been looked at past periods of currency swings He found that overshoots - where the dollar is lower or higher than economic data would usually support - tend to persist for some time.
"The currency tends to spend more time on either side of fair value than it does actually trading at fair value," Been wrote on Monday, adding that ANZ currently estimates fair value at US72¢.
The bank sees the currency's trough at US67¢, but sees a downside risk to its prediction that could take the Aussie below US60¢.
"The overshoot is still justified by global circumstances and by the softer, more volatile growth outlook in particular," Been said.
According to the data ANZ has looked at, the dollar actually spends more than 60 per cent of its time above fair value. But when the Aussie is on the cheap side of fair value, it has a much longer and flatter tail than the opposite, Been said.
"In particular, we can see that if the Australian dollar is trading more than half a standard deviation away from fair value, then it is more likely to overshoot by more than one standard deviation."
The recent move below US70¢ mean it has fallen into this territory, ANZ says, adding that makes more falls likely. "A move below one standard deviation will open up downside for a move below US60¢."
So when's the dollar likely to turn higher? Been reckons we'd need to see an improvement in both the local and the regional economy.
ANZ's view on the Aussie overshooting on the downside was echoed by St George.
Economist Janu Chan said the bank's expectations of the broader outlook for the Australian economy were not materially different from a few months ago, adding it expected the RBA to leave rates on hold until late 2016.
"We are maintaining our end-of- year forecast at US73¢ but we recognise that downside risks exist for our forecast while sentiment remains fragile. Volatility has escalated and there remains more uncertainty than usual surrounding our forecast."
But Chan expects the dollar to come under pressure in 2016, and predicts the Aussie to track close toUS70¢.