Former Australian cricket captain Steve Waugh believes Steve Smith's side is no better than an even money chance to knock off New Zealand this summer, a team he says will be quietly confident of beating the hosts.
With Australia's top order far from locked down nine days before the first ball is bowled at the Gabba, Waugh dismissed the suggestion Australia were series favourites against a side ranked sixth on the ICC Test rankings.
Asked whether Australia's inexperienced top order would have any better opportunity to plunder runs and cement their spots, Waugh said New Zealand, who haven't lost a Test series since   May 2013, would be a more difficult assignment than Smith's men might think. 
"New Zealand are way better than sixth, it's not six versus two," Waugh said. "They'd be quietly confident of winning this series. There will be two evenly matched sides in this first Test. It could go either way. If we beat them, that's a good series win. They have a great opportunity to do well. They would see this as the best chance since 1985 when [Richard] Hadlee and the great New Zealand team beat Australia. They're an all-round quality team."
As for selections - which will be finalised after a round of Sheffield Shield matches beginning on Wednesday - Waugh said the Josh Hazlewood-Peter Siddle "quandary" for the third fast bowling spot could go either way and even if he was captain, he would not be concerned by Siddle's limited overs in a game of late. 
Asked what he thought about reports suggesting selectors were hesitant to play Mitchell Starc and Mitchell Johnson in the same side, Waugh said such an idea was "gibber". 
"I don't care if you've got four left-arm quicks, you put them all in," Waugh said. "It doesn't matter to me. I think it's always been overstated. I just don't believe in that old wives tale." 
In the batting stakes, Waugh is trusting mail from Western Australia coach Justin Langer that Cameron Bancroft can be productive as an opener while the 168-Test veteran would prefer Shaun Marsh to bat higher than lower because he is not a good "watcher and waiter" before going out to the middle. 
Waugh will be watching with intrigue as Smith takes over the captaincy this summer, but comparatively, he and the precocious kid from the Shire have taken on the second most important job in the land in contrasting circumstances. Waugh was 33 year old and had 111 Tests under his belt when he was first named skipper for a Test series in the West Indies in 1999, while Smith is just 26 with 33 Tests experience now he has been handed the reigns full-time.
Against the West Indies 16 years ago, Waugh's XI had 548 Test caps between them. In the likely scenario Hazlewood gets the nod over Siddle, Bancroft debuts and Marsh and Usman Khawaja play at the Gabba, Smith's team will have notched up less than half than that with 259 Tests. 
Waugh likes Smith's toughness and said it was a trait which would serve him well and might help him break "all the Australian records" for runs and games played.
"I probably came in more relaxed than he did at 25," Waugh said. "He's more than capable of dealing with the pressure and he's a quick learner. He's very resilient, I think he's very tough underneath." 
Waugh, 50, is also embarking on a new challenge of his own - riding 920km from Sydney to Byron Bay in six days in an inaugural Captain's Run to raise awareness and money for young adults with rare diseases. 
Waugh has been training 10-12 hours a week for three months for the ride, which begins on Sunday at Wisemans Ferry. 
"I wanted to do something that's difficult and tough and in some small way is like what these [sick] kids go through every day," he said. "I'm hoping I'm going to make it, but I'm not 100 per cent sure I'm going to do so." 
The progress of the Captain's Ride can be followed at www.stevewaughfoundation.com.au.