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THERE IS broad agreement among leaders of industry and government that we need to transition our energy sector as Australia journeys towards a lower carbon future. What we need now is a clear path to get there.
We are facing a complex set of challenges, including balancing surplus generation capacity with ambitions to increase renewables, improve energy productivity and reduce emissions. We must do this in a way that preserves Australia's economic prosperity, secures our energy future and supports communities affected by change in the energy sector. 
The facts define the size of the challenge. There is currently more than 7500 megawatts of surplus capacity across the national electricity market. At the same time, the Renewable Energy Target will require electricity generation from large-scale renewable energy projects to almost double by 2020. Bringing this much new capacity into a market that is already oversubscribed will require the retirement of existing infrastructure. That is easy to say, but harder to do, particularly in an environment where consensus is difficult to achieve.
At a time when there is a need for a balanced and reasoned debate we are stuck in a binary discussion that is "pro this" and "anti that". This obstructs the path to a realistic and pragmatic conversation about the right mix of energy sources that reasonably accommodates the needs of all stakeholders.
We need a conversation that builds consensus and seeks compromise in order to deliver long-term policy stability, which in turn will create certainty in the investment framework that is essential to enable a successful transition. If industry and government act in a fragmented way, we will struggle to reach the future to which we aspire, and the cost of our transition to a lower carbon future will only climb.
Export imperative
At the same time, the debate over domestic policy cannot be conducted independently from Australia's role in global trade. It is important to recognise the importance of the export market to our economic prosperity. In 2014-15, Australian energy resources generated $143 billion worth of energy exports, and demand is expected to continue to grow. The International Energy Agency has projected global energy needs to rise 35 per cent by 2035, with most of this increase met by fossil fuels. The reality is that Australia will continue to rely on fossil fuels for some time as a significant source of revenue, and it is critical we preserve that as we manage our domestic position. We cannot shape domestic policy in a way that undermines the value of our export market.
We must continue to integrate renewable energy and other emerging technologies into the market. We must think creatively about mechanisms to incentivise the retirement of ageing, high-carbon assets. That creativity must extend to solutions for communities most affected by change as we pursue integrated climate and energy policy outcomes. And we must do this with the knowledge that fossil fuels will have a continued role to play in the prosperity of our nation.
The purpose of the [Australia's Energy Future] series was to create a space to have this conversation, and there is broad support among industry for the discussion to continue. Businesses must work together, hand in hand with government, to define a policy framework that will live through election cycles and guide the transition of our energy industry.
It is not going to be easy, but we need to work together to plan our future. Agreeing on a goal and a pathway is critical and should not be delayed. The longer we wait, the harder it will be.