Less than a day before polls open Nick Xenophon - buzzing through Adelaide in his tiny, filthy Toyota Yaris to his last press conference of the campaign - insists he will emerge a kingmaker on Saturday night.
Even if the popular vote splits 50-50 between the major the parties, as the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll suggests it might, Xenophon thinks the Coalition will still win a majority of seats.
But there is a chance that he and his team - which is fielding 32 candidates around the country - could decide who the next prime minister will be. 
Polling suggests that Rebekha Sharkie, the Nick Xenophon Team's candidate for the South Australian seat of   Mayo, now held by Liberal Jamie Briggs, is within striking distance of victory. The most optimistic people in Xenophon's office believe a second seat is possible too, but are reluctant to show their polling data.
Xenophon himself expects the NXT will take three Senate seats in SA. "Based on the polling I would be disappointed if we didn't get three; four would be a big ask. Four would mean we would have more [Senate] seats than the ALP and be level-pegging in the Liberal Party."
"You don't see yourself making a Rob Oakeshott-style speech in the coming days?" I ask him, referring to the agonisingly long speech the NSW independent made in announcing his support for a Gillard government more than two weeks after the 2010 election.
"Firstly, hopefully it would not take me 17 days, or 17 minutes, but no I can't," he answers.
Friday morning's press conference turns out to be a classic Xenophon stunt. It is being held at a business called Supashock that manufactures shock absorbers for sale around the world.
"We'll be posing the question, will voters deliver the major parties a super shock," explains Xenophon with a (very slightly) sheepish grin.
But as is normally the case with Xenophon stunts, behind the dad-joke there is a little substance. He is calling for federal government support for businesses like SupaShock in the wake of the SA car industry. The money, he argues, already exists in the form of an industry diversification fund that has underspent its budget.
This is key to understanding Xenophon's success. Many South Australians feel their state has been taken for granted for years by both major parties. By threatening them both Xenophon claims to have extracted millions - if not billions - of dollars in commitments from both parties.
Most famously Xenophon capitalised on the federal governments promise to build 12 submarines worth $50 billion in SA, a promise Tony Abbott appeared to back away from before Malcolm Turnbull made it firm policy, though not before Xenophon made national news presenting the Abbott government with a second birthday cake in the form of a submarine.
A supporter who has been door-knocking in   Mayo says he meets residents who are angry at perceived neglect by the Liberal Party and are looking past Labor to the NXT because they have seen Xenophon's apparent success in extracting such commitments.
Xenophon's presence has clearly rattled the major parties too. Both have spent time and money attacking the NXT, with Turnbull singling them out in his final campaign setpiece at the National Press Club on Thursday.
"I say to Australians, again - if you only really know the leader of a minor party, but you don't really know their candidates, and you don't really know their policies, don't vote for them."
Stirling Griff, who is second on the NXT's SA Senate ticket, says the attacks by the major parties have helped their cause, with polls showing increases in support after negative ads run against them by Labor.
Having introduced his candidates to assembled media, Xenophon clambers shamelessly aboard a three-wheeled motorbike plastered in NXT stickers that is being driven by his candidate for Hindmarsh, Daniel Kirk, who swears he has a motorbike licence.
Xenophon pulls on a helmet and the two roar off and do a couple of laps before turning back into the car park. Kirk stalls the bike in the driveway, gets it started again and then knocks over a couple of empty TV camera tripods before rolling to a halt at the front door.
Xenophon barely seems to notice the faint whiff of chaos.