National selector Mark Waugh has given a strong indication Shaun Marsh will get the nod ahead of Joe Burns for the Boxing Day Test, in one of the tightest selection races in recent years.
Barring a last-minute setback with his hamstring, Usman Khawaja is set to reclaim his place in the Test side but it could be in a new role as opener depending on which rein Rod Marsh's panel pulls.
It will not be a straightforward meeting for selectors, who must weigh up the value of Marsh's runs against weak opposition next to the role Burns has played in Australia's strong opening partnerships. 
Marsh would be vulnerable if the adage of last man in first man out is applied, but the maligned left-hander has quietened many of his critics since replacing Khawaja.
The 32-year-old has been a boom-or-bust proposition in the baggy green. Of his 30 Test knocks, 12 have produced single-digit scores, a further five have ended under 20 while his three centuries have tantalised, showing what he can deliver - albeit fleetingly.
His three innings this summer could be a microcosm of his career - bookended by a diabolical run out for two and a career-best 182. In between was a backs-to-the-wall 49 in the fourth-innings run chase against New Zealand which, judging by Waugh's comments on Wednesday, will count for plenty at the selection table.
"I think Shaun Marsh's 49 in Adelaide was worth a hundred on the subcontinent," Waugh said on the Big Sports Breakfast show. "That 49 won Australia the game against good bowling; it was swinging around, he was under pressure. The more runs you get, the better chance you are of holding your spot.
"Sometimes it's harder to make runs against an opposition like the West Indies the other day. It's one of the difficulties of selection - the pure numbers against a gut feeling of how a batsman's batting or a bowler's bowling."
Burns' numbers, 298 at 42.6, are not those of a player who deserves to be under such scrutiny. He and Warner have also averaged 89 for their first-wicket stand with three of their seven partnerships in excess of 100.
But, as they say, the devil is in the detail. Burns has been bowled in the first innings of his past three Tests, including two occasions when he played on. Burns will not take comfort either in how Shane Watson's Test career ended amid a run of leg-before-wicket dismissals.
"If someone is making the same mistake and getting out he same way it's a bit of a worry for the coaches and the selectors as well," Waugh said.
"It's not as easy as the numbers, otherwise anyone could be a selector."
Should Burns make way then Khawaja will most likely open otherwise he will return to first drop.
"He's scored two hundreds the last two Test matches so you'd imagine he'd slot back in, and it probably comes to a shootout between Joe Burns and Shaun Marsh, who have both played really well," Waugh said.
"Someone will be very unlucky but that happens. In history there's a lot of those occasions, it's not the end of a career of someone if they miss out but it's going to be hard to drop someone after the good form they've shown all season.
"A couple of months ago we were thinking who our batsmen are going to be but now we've actually got too many players - they're all playing well."
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