Russia will make a move into Asia that is likely to challenge Australia for a major share of its energy -markets.
The Lowy Institute for International Policy says Moscow is determined to deepen its energy, trade, and military presence in the -region. 
The author of Russia's Asian Rebalance, Matthew Sussex, says Russia's recent boldness under Vladimir Putin stems from a fear of weakness. A failure to make a successful rebalance would see Russia seriously weakened over the next 20 to 30 years and unable to become a major regional player.
The Russian pivot is a challenge and a potential opportunity for new thinking on Australia's -security policy, Dr Sussex says.
Russia's intended future as a major energy player in Asia is a -serious issue for energy exporters in the region, he says. Moscow is seeking to significantly shore up its position in oil, gas, and coal and iron ore.
Dr Sussex says Australia cannot rest on its laurels as an energy superpower and it will need to -increase its competitiveness and create energy partnerships to counter Russian competition.
He notes the tensions between Canberra and Moscow since Russia's aggression towards Ukraine and the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 but says Australia should work on the relationship. "Whether or not the rebalance succeeds, Canberra should consider a limited and certain re--engagement with Moscow," Dr Sussex says. "Such an approach would protect Australian interests while also potentially nudging Russia towards a more balanced and constructive posture in -regional affairs." Dr Sussex says Moscow has no wish to become simple a raw materials supplier to China, but it sees no advantage in turning to the West either.
"Instead, it seeks a degree of -independence through Putin's great power vision of Russia as a Euro-Pacific actor," he says.
To achieve this Russia needs to follow through with its pivot to Asia, and deepen its energy, trade, and military presence.
But a successful Russian pivot is not guaranteed. "The strength of Russia's relationship with China is unclear and its ability to convert its energy and political intentions into achievements is patchy," Dr Sussex says.
There have been -repeated suggestions that Russia is prepared to sell both energy and resources at a loss to outmuscle competitors. "Indeed, there are certainly strong indications that it is losing out in its gas deal with China," he says.
The Russian strategy is to sign up states to relatively long-term deals, to keep competition down, and then ratchet up the price, Dr Sussex says.
Russia pursued a similar -approach in Eastern Europe after the end of the Cold War. But Dr Sussex says there are three -important factors that could work against Russia. Asia represents a more crowded marketplace and it would be even more crowded once US gas exports increase.
As well, Russia's prospective energy clients are wary of its past use of energy as a strategic lever.Russia will also need to secure heavy investment in infrastructure and logistics to achieve even the ability from which to attempt regional energy dominance.