Here's a question for the big global investors who used Australian stocks as a proxy for their bets on a Chinese slowdown: How's that big short treating you now?
The resources rally shows little sign of stopping, with another surge in the iron price on Wednesday night - up 3.1 per cent to a 10-month high of $64.77 a tonne - setting another fire under the share prices of Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Fortescue Metals Group. BHP shares rose 3.5 per cent on Thursday to $21.05, after the company announced a cut to production; the stock has surged 24.8 per cent since the start of   April. Shares in Rio Tinto, which foreshadowed lower production on Tuesday, have risen 23.1 per cent over the same period, while Fortescue rose 41.9 per cent.
As one investor told us, this is bad news for a cohort of big investors - particularly in the US - who have spent the past few months telling clients the commodity price rally wouldn't last. "The pain trade is higher for them," said our fund manager friend. 
And with iron ore up 69 per cent since hitting $US38.30 a tonne in   December, the pain must be getting more acute.
The fundie argues that official data on short positions, which shows that short selling in the miners has dropped significantly in the last few months, understates the level of shorts that still exist; overseas investors use instruments such as swaps to go short, and this doesn't show up in the ASX numbers.
A bit of kudos for spotting this should go to Terry Campbell, the chairman of Australian Foundation Investment Company, who told investors in early   March the global shorters that had used Australia as a proxy for China have been caught out; he said at the time he would be "surprised" if commodity prices got worse.
The question from here is: Can the rally continue? If so, does it last for three months, 18 months or somewhere in between? That depends on your view on China. Rising steel production, driven by government stimulus measures, looks likely to continue for a while yet, with suggestions that China's property construction sector has ramped up considerably in recent months.
"The government has done a complete 180-degree turn," said our fundie.
If the stimulus rolls on or is expanded, then the demand tailwinds for commodities and commodity stocks should remain. And if there's a bit of movement on the supply side of the equation - as we've seen this week from BHP and Rio's production guidance cuts - then there's even more cause for optimism.
But the bears aren't without hope either. While steel production is rising, steel exports are booming, which suggests domestic demand might not be as strong as hoped. Iron ore stockpiles are starting to look healthy too; Bloomberg reported that stocks of imported iron ore at China's ports stood at 96.8 million tonnes as of   April 15, not far below a one-year high of 97.85 million tonnes the week before, based on SteelHome data.
There's also an argument that the sentiment might have got the better of common sense in terms of the share price rises we've seen. Jeremy Wrathall, head of global natural resources in London at Investec, summed it up nicely on Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg TV. "The miners themselves are very different animals," he said.
"They've "reduced their debt, reduced their costs, cut their dividends and done a lot to save themselves. But we think things have gone a bit too far on valuations."
The big shorters will be hoping he's right.