OFTEN the best way to predict the future is to look first for what you don't expect to see. New year predictions about what might happen in politics are seldom matched by the actual events that unfold. 
Australian politics is testament to this. Those prognosticating at the beginning of 2015 would have looked foolish six weeks in after Campbell Newman announced a   January election that he lost and Tony Abbott faced a spill motion for his leadership.
So, what don't we expect to see this year? Here are five possibilities. Most pundits are convinced there won't be a federal election before the Budget, with sights set on a poll in the late   August to early   October time frame.
The counterview is that Malcolm Turnbull and his advisers are war gaming all options and with economic uncertainty and a Labor Opposition down if not out, the good poll numbers the Prime Minister and the Coalition are enjoying might be too tempting to resist.
Whenever the election is held, Turnbull and his Treasurer Scott Morrison will have a tax reform package as a central feature of their manifesto for the next term.
Here everyone expects a GST hike or expansion to be a key measure in any reform but there are strong political reasons to discount the signals for this tax move. As a reform, it's electoral poison that Paul Keating couldn't realise, cost John Hewson the "unlosable" election and almost made John Howard a one-term prime minister.
Don't be too surprised if the GST is not part of the tax reform package. Tony Abbott's future has become a water-cooler issue with most people thinking he'll stay but wishing he'd go. The former PM has told everyone he has more to contribute and is expected to renominate for his North Sydney seat mid-  February.
  Maybe he won't and go off and become a trainee elder statesman and commit himself to a favourite cause like indigenous recognition.
Labor's leadership looks settled through to the next election, which would make Bill Shorten the longest- serving ALP Opposition Leader since Kim Beazley's first stint from 1996 to 2001.
However, while change is difficult it's not impossible and if that always restless NSW branch of the party gets itchy Shorten might come under threat - the double expect the unexpected here is that if there was a move against him, don't bet on his losing. He can round up support when it counts.
Finally, the trade union royal commission painted an unattractive picture of the Construction Forestry Mining and Engineering Union which is also in trouble with numerous officials facing charges or under investigation.
There's a chance the ALP will cut ties with the bad boy union and announce a genuine crackdown on union malfeasance.
That last one is the least likely unexpected thing to happen.
Dennis Atkins is The Courier-Mail's national affairs editordennis.atkins@news.com.au