How shooting was an end and a beginning for Nesan KistanGun control 'eroded' since Port Arthur
Australians now own more guns than before the 1996 Port Arthur massacre, according to new research that shows firearm imports hit a record high in 2014-15.
The surge in gun-buying over the past 16 years, which has seen 1.02 million guns brought into the country, has been largely a "gun swap", according to Philip Alpers, a University of Sydney public health researcher, gun control expert and founding director of gunpolicy.org. 
"The proud claim of some Australians that their country has 'solved the gun problem' might only be a temporary illusion," Associate Professor Alpers will write in The Conversation on Thursday, the 20th anniversary of the massacre.
"The million guns destroyed after Port Arthur have been replaced with 1,026,000 new ones. And the surge only shows upward momentum."
The chart above tracks the steady rise in legal private gun sales since 1999. (New firearms must be imported since firearms are not manufactured in Australia.)
The spike in 1996-97 represents the buying spree triggered by the firearm laws, as banned rapid-fire firearms were replaced with freshly-imported single-shot firearms.
Gun sales in 2014-15 were the highest on record, swelling six-fold compared with 1999, the gunpolicy.org research shows.
With 104,000 guns added last year, the national arsenal is, for the first time in 20 years, bigger than before the 1996 national buyback.
Population growth over the past 20 years means the rate of private gun ownership remains about 23 per cent lower than before the massacre, the research notes.
  Why are Australians buying more guns?  
Researchers struggle to explain who is buying all these guns and why.
Associate Professor Alpers believes the surge is most likely driven by gun owners increasing their collections, rather than more Australians buying guns.
He points to figures that show the proportion of Australian households with a gun fell by 75 per cent between 1988 and 2005.
"That suggests the people who are buying the guns are people who already have guns. And that fits into the global pattern ??? [of] a steady and substantial downward trend over the past 30-40 years," Associate Professor Alpers said.
Psychologist and self-described gun control critic Samara McPhedran, critic from Griffith University's Violence Research and Prevention Program, attributes the boom in firearm sales to the rising popularity of shooting sports among a younger demographic.
"I think what the figures show fundamentally is that people are interested in target shooting and hunting, and so on, and that interest seems to be growing over time," she said.
However, not everyone agrees.
  How the 1996 gun laws may have strengthened the gun lobby  
One unintended consequence of the post-Port Arthur gun laws was to boost the wealth and widen the influence of shooting clubs, according to associate professor Alpers.
The 1996 laws require gun owners to show they have a genuine reason to own a firearm. The easiest way for people in urban areas to do this is through membership in a gun club, associate professor Alpers said.
And not just membership but active participation. In NSW, for example, the firearm licensing regulations require members of target shooting clubs to participate at least four times a year. In Victoria, a licensed handgun owner is required to participate in at least 10 shoots a year. The requirements vary by jurisdiction.
"People who never normally went to gun clubs were now going to gun clubs and shooting ranges because the law obliged them to," associate professor Alpers said.
"So the gun lobby has grown in size, political clout and, certainly, in money ??? as a side-effect of the post-Port Arthur gun laws."
Such clubs also play a vital role in politicising gun owners and nurturing future ones, associate professor Alpers said.
For example, shooters clubs have called for age restrictions on minors firearm licences to be lifted, so children of all ages will be allowed to use weapons while supervised.
"They do that because they're convinced ??? that the next generation should love guns as much as they do. It is one of their highest concerns," associate professor Alpers said.
And it's a strategy aimed at survival. "The single most reliable indicator of gun ownership is whether your father had a gun," he said.
  Gun sales are up but gun violence is declining  
On the other hand, the link between Australia's gun-buying surge and gun violence isn't clear.
After all, rising gun sales are nothing new. "This isn't a sudden increase. It's a consistent pattern that we've seen over a number of years," Dr McPhedran said.
"And despite those increases we've seen steady declines in firearm misuse."
Homicide and suicide by firearm have been falling since the 1980s. Armed robbery with a firearm, drive-by shootings and shoot with intent have also continued to fall, she said.
However, psychiatrist Michael Dudley, a senior staff specialist at the Child and Adolescent Mental Health Service at the Prince of Wales and Sydney Children's Hospitals, warned against taking these achievements for granted.
Complacency, he believes, is at least one part of the explanation for increased gun sales.
"There was really significant concern in the 1980s and 1990s about those mass homicides by firearm. It mounted throughout the 1980s and, of course, at Port Arthur, there was a complete boil over," Dr Dudley said.
Over the past 20 years, however, there has been "a slackening off", potentially in response to the achievements of the 1996 gun laws. "People think we've solved the problem," he said.
He warned against attempts to wind back the laws. "The evidence is all in favour of gun availability and gun ownership being the critical factor" in gun violence, he said.
"The main game is around ensuring that the guns aren't available."