how red is Africa ? by John Baker-White . just how red is Africa ? to what extent has the Soviet propaganda machine succeeded in influencing the upsurge of African nationalism ? has Moscow yet got a firm foothold , political or economic , in the great African continent ? and were the disorders in the Congo and Rhodesia the work of red agents ? the answers to these questions press not only on politicians , strategists and intelligence experts , but on all of us . for the future pattern of rule in the states of Africa must inevitably shape the pattern of the world . in probing for the answers to these questions I shall start by listing the states where communism has little or no influence . one of them is the kingdom of Morocco , another Tunisia , a third Libya . students red trained . it is true that a few students from these countries are studying the techniques of revolution in Moscow and Prague , and a handful of trade union leaders are in communist training schools , but the governments are anti-communist and the people disinterested in red doctrines . in the Sudan the communist party is illegal , the political intelligence system alert , and to date efforts by the world federation of trade unions to capture the unions have failed . it may surprise some people to know that communism , at the moment , has no hold in Ghana . President Nkrumah is building a socialist state , aided by a small number of hand-picked young socialist intellectuals , but he has no illusions about communist methods . he studied them closely when , as a young man , he lived in London . when Ghana got its independence Moscow thought the new state was a sitting bird and the Soviet economic experts arrived with attractive offers for the cocoa crop . communists our rivals . they discovered that the President is prepared to do business with the Soviet bloc - but only on his own terms . anxious to become head of a federation of African states , including the Congo , he seeks to harness the forces of nationalism . communism he regards not so much as an ally but as a competitor . in Guinea the picture is very different . just over a year ago I warned that the Soviet Union was planning to establish in this new state a fresh bridgehead into Africa . now she has got it . a dedicated Marxist and graduate of Prague University , President Sekou Toure is what the cynical planners in the Kremlin call in the net . he is bound to the Soviet bloc by loans and trade agreements . he has accepted technicians in large numbers from Russia , East Germany and Poland . the Czechs are reshaping and equipping Guinea &apos;s army and police . Chinese technicians have taken charge of the rice growing plan . red-made . in Conakry , the capital , shops are full of Czech matches , cigarettes and watches , Chinese rice , East German typewriters and Russian textiles . Czech cement is building the new docks , German machinery equipping the new factories . a Conakry-Prague air service is opening up , a communist-controlled school for African trade union leaders is open already . since the beginning of the year five international communist organisations have held conferences at Conakry . one of them was the Afro-Asian solidarity council , based in Cairo , and , for the past three years , Moscow &apos;s main propaganda weapon in Africa . I predict that within the next six months the council will move permanently to Conakry , for Guinea - not Cairo - is now the most important red bridgehead in Africa . the violent revolt against Belgium , the tribal conflicts and other disorders in the Congo were neither Moscow-planned nor directed . there is evidence that the Russians were just as surprised as anyone else at the suddenness and violence of them , but it is , of course , a situation ideal for exploitation . communist army head . at least two of Mr Lumumba &apos;s entourage have had some training in Moscow , and the officer in charge of the Guinea contingent of the U N forces in the Congo is a fully indoctrined communist . three Czech advisers accompanied the contingent , and now a thirty-strong Soviet technical mission has arrived in Leopoldville . it may be pure coincidence that they are all tall , well-built men in their middle-thirties , but they look uncommonly like red army officers in plain clothes . communism had little or nothing to do with the riots in South Africa or the more recent disorders in Rhodesia . in fact , former leaders of the communist party in the union have left the country . some are now in the Rhodesian copper belt and at least one of them is in London . in contrast , Moscow has embarked upon a special operation in Ruanda-Urundi , which borders on the Belgian Congo . this state of some 21,000 square miles and a population of 4,630,000 has been a united nations trust territory under the administration of Belgium , but a few days ago she announced that she was giving up the trusteeship . in the early part of August a Soviet agent named Nikolay Khokhlov arrived in the capital Usumbura , and made contact with the vice-president of the united movement party , Paul Kabandrouka . through Khokhlov he sent a message to Moscow . let the U S S R know that Ruanda-Urundi demands independence , demands it urgently and without delay . I smell trouble here . the conditions exist for it and trouble would suit Moscow &apos;s purpose admirably . it joins the frontiers not only of the Congo but also of Tanganyika and Uganda , a British trusteeship and protectorate moving towards self-government . Ruanda-Urundi is a place to watch . secret police ruthless . Colonel Nasser and the United Arab Republic have economic ties with the Soviet bloc and the Soviet mission has underground contact with the leaders of the rebel national liberation front at their headquarters in the Street of the blue Mosque in Cairo . on the other hand , the secret police has been known to deal ruthlessly with communist agitators . while he was living in London the communists made a number of approaches to Dr Hastings Banda , the Nyasaland nationalist leader , but there is evidence that , like President Nkrumah , he has few illusions about how Moscow uses African nationalism to achieve its own purposes . among the states in the French community that the Soviet propagandists are paying particular attention to are Madagascar and the Cameroun , facts to which the French are alive . while Moscow continues to step up the radio barrage on the ears of African listeners , the most significant developments in the propaganda offensive in the coming months will come from Peking . China radio propaganda . the China-Africa friendship association has been formed , inter alia , to support the joint struggle of the African peoples in opposing imperialism and colonialism . radio Peking &apos;s output to Africa is now 550 hours a week , and includes special broadcasts in Cantonese to overseas Chinese in South Africa , Madagascar and Mauritius . a recent check on a book-store on Conakry showed that there were 14 Chinese publications on sale , compared with three Russian and one Czech . one of the latest Peking publications is a training manual for African trade unionists . the 23-man Chinese delegation which attended the solidarity council meeting in Conakry was the largest of all , and the official propaganda agency , the new China news agency , has opened up offices in Rabat , Accra and Conakry . Africa has been described as a seething cauldron . both Moscow and Peking can be expected to take every opportunity of adding fuel to the fire under it . by elections - a new warning to tories . by Radar . conservative party fortunes are far from their peak at the present time . and so are those of Harold Macmillan . they have slumped as a result of the build-up of a variety of what the Prime Minister probably prefers to view as little local difficulties . voters , as the recent by-election results showed , are in increasing numbers losing their faith in the magic of the tory administration . this is not to say that the discontented are running to the socialists as their saviours . there is no new spectacular devotion for Jo Grimond &apos;s struggling liberal party , though the liberal leaders have good reason to be satisfied with the overall results . as is usual at by-elections , the disgruntled and disillusioned are staying away from the polling stations , not committing themselves for the time being . meanwhile , millions more people who voted for the conservatives in October , 1959 , and who have not recently had the chance to vote for a parliamentary candidate , are talking among themselves . it is nothing unusual these days to pop into the saloon bar of a public house and hear the government coming under fire from those with the accent of the reasonably well-off . there is a widespread belief that the ruling tories are becoming more reactionary , trying to please their right wing more than their left or centre supporters . no single act by the government has done more to foster this impression than the increase in the health service charges . on the other hand , everyone but the right-wing conservatives applauded the Prime Minister &apos;s wind of change attitude towards dealing with the problem of Africa and the coloured people . in the event , the wind has dropped to no more than a gentle breeze . it has been damped down by those who would like to see hardly any movement at all . Harold Macmillan himself has had a difficult time . so far as general affairs have been concerned he has deliberately attempted to lie low , let his colleagues build up their own images . last year he put everything he had into trying to bring about a successful summit meeting between the leaders of the U.S.A , Russia , France and the United Kingdom . it was not his fault that the attempt failed . but it was heartbreaking , none the less . as leader of the commonwealth &apos;s principal nation he could not have found it pleasant to preside over the dramatic branding of Dr Verwoerd &apos;s apartheid doctrines . it is doubtful whether the man who happened to be Britain &apos;s Prime Minister at the time when South Africa decided to end her 50-year association with this country will be proclaimed a national hero on that particular score . the fact is , Harold Macmillan has lost a lot of ground in the popularity stakes , needs a new major personal success to restore his own fortunes , and those of the party . there is still one glittering prize to be grasped . the man who captures it will go down in history as one of the greatest of mortals . what the great masses of ordinary people in the world desire most of all is the certain prospect of peace for as long ahead as possible . no one can blame Harold Macmillan for trying to reach the elusive goal . and few would be so uncharitable as to say that he would like to do it just for his own sake . the Prime Minister realises that he has as good a chance of bringing about the hoped-for miracle as any man alive . his unique position as leader of the British commonwealth of nations gives him a better chance than most . once more , he believes , he must try to be the intermediary between the two great opposing communist and non-communist world blocs . if nothing else , the Americans have to be convinced that the government of red China must be given full recognition , admitted to the united nations , and treated as what it is - one of the leading governments in the world . half the world &apos;s crooks are never caught . reveals John Reed . during this week in the cities of Rome , Paris , and New York , it is safe to predict that a total of at least 70 people will be murdered . in addition , there will be at least two major bank robberies , several hundred cases of rape , and thousands of burglaries and frauds . in New York alone a serious offence is committed every two minutes . these are shocking figures , but even more shocking is the fact that at least half the people behind these crimes will go undetected . experts who attended a recent conference on crime in London admitted that all over the world crime is not only increasing , but in many cases the criminal is becoming more elusive . 